10-year US Treasury yield Loading... : Investor Sentiment and Bull/Bear Views
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Price change since each call, adjusted for long/short direction. Results calculated:
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22:00
Sep 16
Sep 16
Hawkish Fed lifts Treasury yields further
The Fed raised rates by 25bp and Warsh delivered a strongly hawkish message, saying inflation has been too high for too long and that additional hikes may be needed. Short-term Treasury yields jumped and the 10-year yield moved back above 5%; if oil does not fall, long-term yields can rise further, so the trade is for elevated or higher US Treasury yields.
HIGH
15:00
Aug 22
Aug 22
Watch 10-year Treasury yield above 5%.
A break above 5% on the 10-year Treasury yield is the scary Defcon-1 line where things would really start to break; the bond market is taking control from the Federal Reserve, and with $40 trillion of debt and over $1 trillion in interest expense, the 10-year yield above 5% is the key threshold to watch.
MED
23:42
Aug 18
Aug 18
Rising deficits push Treasury yields higher.
The US fiscal deficit is creating a fight for capital and pushing up bond yields as debt nears $40 trillion. With interest rates likely to exceed growth, rising yields create a debt-spiral risk; the 10-year Treasury is already about 55 basis points above CBO projections, implying about $2 trillion more in interest payments over 10 years, and heavy short-term issuance makes the US more vulnerable to faster rate repricing.
HIGH
06:50
Aug 05
Aug 05
Long US 10-year yield on AI CapEx
Markets are underestimating the rise in long-dated US Treasury yields driven by massive AI CapEx spending from top firms, which requires increased debt issuance and internal funding. The 10-year yield already reached its highest since 2007, and the market's crowding in equities ignores looming bond sell-off ramifications.
MED
22:54
Jul 30
Jul 30
30-year yield could hit 5.5%
The market distrusts Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's communication and will demand higher yields to compensate for inflation risk. With core PCE still above 3%, the lack of clear reaction function will push long-end Treasury yields significantly higher, with the 30-year potentially reaching 5.5% and the 10-year near 5%, tightening financial conditions and slowing housing.
HIGH
13:00
Jun 14
Jun 14
Short US Treasuries.
Strong economy and risk-on environment mean higher interest rates; the 10-year Treasury yield, currently around 4.50%, can move towards 5% by the end of the year.
MED
16:04
Aug 21
Aug 21
Rate cuts may lift 10-year yields.
A Fed rate cut with inflation near 3% could drive inflation higher and push long-term Treasury yields higher, as happened in Germany, the UK, and the US after prior cuts. A 10-year yield back toward 5% would pressure equity valuations and could cause a stock drawdown.
MED
About 10-year US Treasury yield Investor Commentary
Across the available history and selected sources, Buzzberg tracks 10-year US Treasury yield across 4 sources: 5 bullish vs 1 bearish calls from 7 authors. Historical directional balance: 57% = 100 × (bullish − bearish) / all deduplicated idea records, including other directions. This is neither a probability of a price rise nor the share of bullish authors. 7 total trade ideas tracked. Past 7 days, before deduplication: 1 bullish. Latest voices: Park Myung-seok, Gareth Soloway, Maya MacGuineas.